As gas prices continue to climb, the number of people relying on natural gas for their heating is expected to double over the next decade.
As of mid-November, there were more than 6.3 million households in New Yorkers with a natural gas heater, according to the Department of Energy.
While New Yorkers will increasingly rely on natural resources to keep them warm, there is still a significant supply gap that could push some households to turn to more expensive gas.
A new report from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) predicts the natural gas shortage could push more than 100,000 New Yorkers into a “gas-to-gas” ratio of at least four to one by 2025.
According to the UCS, natural gas-to-$gas ratios are the ratio of natural gas produced to natural gas consumed.
That means that even though New Yorkers may have more natural gas than they need, they still have less gas than a person would need to heat their home.
In fact, the UCS estimates that over the decade of the study, the average New Yorker would have a natural-gas heater of about 3.6 cubic feet per day, compared to 3.9 cubic feet for a person with a conventional heater.
The UCS also noted that natural gas usage in New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts could also rise in the coming years, due to an increase in demand from households with older or higher-income families.
At the same time, New Yorkers who rely on their gas heater will need to pay more for the energy to keep it running.
The report estimated that the average price of natural-gases for the year of 2020 was $1.17 per kilowatt-hour, which would put a household’s electricity bill at $14.51 per month, compared with $13.85 for a typical electric bill.
In addition, the report estimates that if the gas-only ratio remained at 4 to 1, the price of gas for a household in the Northeast would be about $5,500 a year, compared the price for a consumer in the Midwest.
The report noted that a significant portion of the increase in natural gas prices in New England and the Midwest will likely be driven by increased use of natural resources.
UCS Vice President Mark Zandi told the New York Times that the impact of this gas shortage will depend on the type of gas used and the supply and demand of gas in different areas.
Zandi said that although natural gas consumption in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania is likely to rise due to the increase of demand, gas-fired electricity in Connecticut and Pennsylvania will probably not increase as much due to increased demand from older families.