The Australian Energy Market Operator has estimated the cost of natural gas at around $US50 a tonnage for thermal and light power generation and about $US80 for electricity generation in 2021.
EIA has a similar estimate for Australia’s coal, gas and hydro resources.
The latest EIA figures are based on a 30-year average of production from the major coal, coal gas and gas-fired generators.
In an EIA report, EIA’s Matthew Krempel said it was “not a stretch” to project that the cost for the next 10 years would be between $US20 and $US35 a ton.
“There is a very real possibility that the prices of some of these assets may actually fall, or even decline dramatically,” Mr Krempele said.
“I think we’re looking at a very high probability of those asset prices falling in the next couple of years.”EIA’s forecasts have been based on an assumption that prices of major coal assets will continue to fall and that the global economy will remain in recession.
Mr Krempes report was released on Thursday.
The Australian Government is also due to release its own costings on the country’s electricity sector.
According to EIA, the price of electricity in 2021 will be about $3.40 a kWh.
It is a significant increase from last year’s average of $2.90.
Australia’s thermal power generation is expected to grow from about 20,000 megawatts to about 33,000MW by 2021.
It is expected that thermal generation will increase from just under 20,600MW to more than 40,000 MW by 2023.
Energy market data is also being released by the Federal Government.
A report by the Australian Council of Trade Unions said the electricity market had become more competitive since the election.
Under Labor, it was the case that the Australian energy market was highly competitive, which means consumers had to pay a premium to get a product they needed.
But since the last election, the market has become more “fragile”, which means that consumers are not paying a premium on the same level of prices as before.